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Utah Economist

MarkScott Schaefer

I am Professor of Finance at the University of Utah's David Eccles School of Business. But don't ask me about your investments --- I'm an economist. I use this blog to stay in touch with former students, and also to try to make economics a little more understandable for regular Utahans.

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Utah: Long Term Prospects

I have a theory about Utah. My theory is that this state is going to grow much faster than the rest of the US over the next 30 years. I think this is a very good place to invest your money and human capital. I'm not saying this because I live here. Rather, I live here (in part) because I'm thinking it.

Why do I think this? Two reasons:

Reason #1 is related to a recent David Brooks column in the NYT. The column summarizes a recent Pew Research Center study on where Americans want to live. The survey asked only about large cities, so Salt Lake wasn't in there.

The Middle Class

Article in the D-News yesterday on "The Middle Class".

Reporter Lois Collins did a nice job summarizing the facts, so I won't repeat them here. But I will add a little about some theories on why this might be happening.

The leading theory among economists is something called "skill-biased technical change." The idea is that production technologies --- that is, the way we make good and services --- have changed. And they've changed in such a way as to make the skills of very educated people (think of college graduates and those with graduate degrees) more valuable relative to the skills of somewhat educated people (think high school grads).

If your skills become more valuable, then employers will be willing to pay higher wages to try to hire you. If your skills become less valuable, then employers won't be as eager to hire you, so your wages won't grow.

Why might this have happened? Computerization is one possible answer. A computer isn't a good substitute for a truck driver. But a good piece of accounting software is a good substitute for a bookkeeper. So, maybe in 1980, a CFO needed a staff of ten bookkeepers to track accounting numbers in a large firm. By 2005, though, a similar CFO could do the same work with only five bookkeepers. Computers substitute for bookkeepers, and therefore make bookkeeping skills less valuable. (Read more)

Financial Statement Analysis (and Valuation)

Asher thumbAsher Curtis

Asher is an Assistant Professor at the David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah. Comments in this blog have been prepared for the basis of class discussion, rather than to illustrate effective or criticize ineffective handling of business and market situations. I am not responsible for the content linked to on this site.

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Valuing facebook

Related to one of our class exercises is the question of how much can these social networking sites be worth?

As a starting point you will notice that all three of the commentators in this article "How much is facebook really worth?" are basing their estimates on multiples of revenue. Of course revenue growth without growth in earnings (and hopefully even residual earnings) tends not to add value in the long-run.

Valuing Netflix earnings and growth

At the time of this post, the market was valuing Netflix at $37 per share, one year ago the share price was $26.89. The raw return for the stock over the past year was (($37-26.89)/26.89) = 37.6%

One question to ask was how did Netflix beat the expectations set at the end of last year...?

One interesting article that discusses some of these expectations (at the time) is the article "Netflix looks like a bargain again" written about a year ago, along with expectations about 2008 written in the companion piece "Netflix 2008 Outlook" where the author discusses expected growth rates in subscriptions.

 

 

 

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